Michigan’s sweet cherry industry lost roughly 75% of its crop in 2024 due to variable and extreme weather conditions. A mild winter followed by a warm and wet early growing season were ideal conditions for fungal diseases that are problematic in sweet cherries, such as American brown rot, a fast-growing pathogen that can become epidemic with warm and wet weather. In addition to disease, heavy rains at harvest caused cracking in sweet cherries, which severely limited their marketability.
The damage caused by these disturbances prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture to issue disaster declarations for multiple northern Michigan counties, allowing growers in the cherry-growing region to access resources to assist them in the challenges they faced.
This is an example of an event Tor Tolhurst studies.
Tolhurst joined Michigan State University in fall 2024 as an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics.
His position is supported by the Agricultural Resiliency Program, a partnership among the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Michigan Plant Coalition, MSU AgBioResearch and MSU Extension aimed at addressing long-term plant agriculture challenges related to water and extreme weather.
As an applied microeconomist, Tolhurst uses quantitative methods to address policy relevant questions related to food, agriculture and natural resources. Specifically, Tolhurst examines tail events and how they influence economic behavior.
Tail events are events that fall outside the probability of what’s expected to happen. Although rare, they’re very impactful and influence how people make decisions regarding risk. Tolhurst said an instance where this can be seen in agriculture is how farmers and growers plan for and are impacted by extreme heat.
Extreme heat is a good example because there’s a lot of research showing that even a few days of very, very high temperatures can cause a lot of damage to a crop like corn,” Tolhurst said. “It only takes a couple days of extreme heat for yield to reduce substantially. That can result in farmers needing insurance payments, farmers not doing as well economically, and — conversely — some farmers not even being affected based on where the extreme heat occurs.
Additionally, it’s not just looking backwards when these events happen and seeing what they did. It’s also looking forward and thinking about how behavior changes knowing that these events happen. We as humans are naturally risk-averse, so we can do things to try and avoid these unlikely scenarios and minimize impact when they take place.”
Tolhurst earned a bachelor’s degree in finance from the University of British Columbia; a master’s degree in food, agricultural and resource economics from the University of Guelph; and a doctorate in agricultural and resource economics from the University of California, Davis.
Before coming to MSU, he was an assistant professor in Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics. His work has been published in journals such as the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, the Southern Economic Journal and PLOS One.
"Dr. Tolhurst is a renowned agricultural and applied economist,” said Chad Cotti, an MSU professor and chairperson of the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics. “His expertise will significantly benefit Michigan agriculture by enhancing the understanding of how extreme weather events impact farming operations. This knowledge will aid in developing strategies to improve risk management and policy responses, thereby bolstering the resilience of Michigan's agricultural sector in the face of extreme weather events."
While still familiarizing himself with the vastness Michigan agriculture offers, Tolhurst said one starting point his research program might begin at is to analyze the extent to which specialty crops are affected by tail events, noting limited knowledge in this area collectively to this point.
Ultimately, though, Tolhurst said a goal of his is to conduct research that will benefit Michigan agriculture and its stakeholders.
“What’s most important to me is thinking about questions I can contribute something new to — that’s the necessary part of making academic contributions,” Tolhurst said. “But also, I want to think about topics that are policy relevant and can make a difference for stakeholders in Michigan agriculture. I want to find that intersection where I can explore and do both.
“This will be supported by the community culture at MSU, which I’ve found very impressive. The university, college and department have been so active in building a collaborative culture, and that’s really helped me as I’ve been getting my research and extension programs going. I look forward to continuing taking part in it.”
This story oiginally appeared on the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources website.
