Food affordability remains a pressing concern for Michigan households. In 2025, food prices increased 3.1%, with grocery prices up 2.4%. Recent monthly data also point to renewed inflationary pressures, suggesting that food costs may continue to rise in 2026.
David Ortega, the Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy at Michigan State University, has testified before lawmakers to explain why grocery bills remain high and how trade policy, including tariffs, continues to affect what Michigan families pay for food.
Drawing on his research in food economics and trade, Ortega explains how policy decisions made at the national and international level quickly translate into higher costs for Michigan families, farmers and food-related businesses.
Why is food affordability still a challenge for Michigan households?
Food prices today are not only higher than they were a few years ago — they continue to move upward. Although food inflation has come down from a few years ago, the 3.1% increase in 2025 and recent monthly gains show that price pressures have not fully eased. For households, the challenge is compounded by the fact that food prices rarely fall in a sustained way. Since the turn of the century, food prices have decreased only twice, and those episodes were brief and modest. As a result, families are often left adjusting to a higher price baseline rather than seeing meaningful relief at the checkout line.
This reality also helps explain why promises that food prices will “come down” frequently miss the mark. When expectations are set around price declines that are historically unlikely, frustration grows when relief does not materialize, and confidence in economic policy can erode. Looking ahead, additional price increases remain possible. I caution that predicting food prices is inherently difficult. Weather shocks, global supply disruptions, labor costs, energy markets and trade policy decisions all interact in ways that make forecasting highly uncertain. The past several years has shown how quickly conditions can change and how sensitive food prices are to both domestic and global shocks.
How do tariffs factor into food affordability?
Tariffs are taxes placed on imported goods. Consumers never see them listed on receipts, but they feel their effects through higher prices. They are “hidden taxes” because they quietly raise costs as food moves through supply chains, from imports and processing to packaging costs. Even though some food‑related tariffs were rolled back in recent months, tariffs remain relevant to affordability. The ongoing threat of new tariffs creates uncertainty that keeps prices elevated even when tariffs are reduced and they discourage investments.
This uncertainty is likely to intensify in the coming months. We have seen renewed tariff threats on countries that we import food from. The U.S. Supreme Court is also expected to rule on the legality of certain tariffs, a decision that will have ripple effects across food and agricultural markets. At the same time, the United States, Mexico and Canada are preparing for the joint review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, arguably the country’s most important trade agreement. The outcome of that review could reshape trade flows, market access and pricing dynamics for Michigan farmers, processors and consumers.
What are some real‑world examples consumers are seeing?
There are several familiar grocery items where tariffs and trade disruptions have contributed to higher prices. Coffee prices have increased nearly 20% over the past year. While supply disruptions in major producing regions are a key driver, tariffs have added to those pressures. Until recently, coffee imported from Brazil — the United States’ largest supplier — faced tariffs as high as 50%, raising costs throughout the supply chain.
Banana prices also have risen. Because nearly all bananas consumed in the United States are imported, higher prices largely reflect tariff-driven cost increases rather than domestic production conditions or changes in consumer demand. Canned foods provide another example: tariffs on imported steel raise the cost of tin cans and packaging, increasing production costs for food manufacturers and, ultimately, contributing to higher prices at the grocery store.
Ground beef is another category experiencing notable increases, with prices up more than 15% over the past year. Tariffs have added to inflationary pressures here as well, as the United States relies on imported lean beef trimmings to blend with domestic beef to produce ground beef sold at retail.
If tariffs are removed, will food prices come down?
That’s unlikely and, if they do, it will be short-lived because food prices are “downward sticky.” They tend to rise quickly but almost never fall in a sustained way. When tariffs push food prices higher, they raise the overall price baseline. Even if tariffs are later reduced or removed, food prices typically remain elevated. What consumers are more likely to experience is a moderation in the rate of increase, which is the rate of inflation. This is another reason why political promises that food prices will fall are misleading. The structure of food markets, combined with the historical behavior of food prices, makes sustained price decreases unlikely.
Why does uncertainty matter for Michigan families and farmers?
Uncertainty around trade policy is damaging on its own. Farmers, food manufacturers and retailers rely on stable and predictable conditions to invest, expand and modernize operations. Frequent changes to tariff policy, or even the threat of new tariffs, make long‑term planning difficult. Higher costs, slower investment and reduced export opportunities weaken the food system over time. For Michigan families, this means continued pressure on grocery budgets. The upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariff authority and the USMCA joint review add additional layers of complexity. Both have the potential to reshape trade relationships and cost structures in ways that will directly affect Michigan’s agricultural economy and the prices consumers pay.
What’s the bottom line?
Food affordability remains under pressure in Michigan. While food prices are difficult to predict, key drivers — supply disruptions, labor costs and trade policy uncertainty — continue to affect prices. Tariffs are not the sole cause of higher food prices, but they raise costs, reduce competition and create uncertainty that keeps prices elevated. Because food prices rarely fall in a sustained way, even when tariffs are reduced, their effects tend to linger. Promising that food prices will “come down” is not supported by the data and risks misleading consumers. Stable and predictable trade policy is essential to improving affordability and strengthening Michigan’s food and agricultural economy over the long term.
