Black Friday is swiftly approaching, and with economic factors such as tariffs and the highest unemployment rates since the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to tighten budgets, consumers and retailers are preparing for a showdown between wallets and wish lists.
Michigan State University experts can discuss what to expect — from supply chain pressures, tariff impacts and rising prices to consumer spending habits and advertising trends.
Jason Miller, Eli Broad Professor and interim chair of MSU’s No. 1–ranked Department of Supply Chain Management in the Broad College of Business, is an expert on logistics and transportation. He is regularly quoted in national media outlets, including CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, NPR, USA Today, Bloomberg, Business Insider and others, about the impact of tariffs on the supply chain. He also maintains an active LinkedIn presence, where he discusses issues related to tariffs, supply chain, transportation and logistics.
Contact: mill2831@broad.msu.edu
“Part of my research focuses on analyzing how supply chain disruptions, such as tariffs, affect manufacturing and retail, turning data into actionable insights for academics and supply chain and retail professionals. Right now, concerns exist about the health of the consumer entering the all-important November and December shopping season.
“Uncertainty about SNAP benefits and federal furloughs are interacting with higher consumer prices at major retailers, especially in categories more sensitive to tariffs, have increased concerns that demand growth may disappoint relative to prior years, which is reflected in weak demand for carboard boxes. Data on credit card debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests consumers are experiencing the greatest degree of stress since the end of the Global Financial Crisis, providing more evidence that the holiday sales season may underperform.”
Valerii “Val” Kucherenko is the director of railway education at MSU’s Center for Railway Research and Education in the Broad College of Business. The center helps train industry leaders to keep up with changes in the railway field. Kucherenko is an expert in pricing and logistics, with years of experience in shipping and supply chains for major companies.
Contact: kucheren@msu.edu
“As retailers and logistics providers prepare for the holiday season, workforce readiness and leadership continuity remain critical. In Michigan State University’s Railway Management Certificate Program, we’ve seen firsthand how companies across freight, passenger and commuter rail are investing in talent development to strengthen performance and reliability.
“Rail continues to play a vital role in stabilizing movement during peak periods, whether transporting goods or connecting travelers. Through our work with industry professionals, we’re seeing a growing emphasis on cross-functional coordination and proactive planning — key ingredients for navigating seasonal surges and ensuring dependable service.”
Stanley Lim, associate professor of supply chain management in the Broad College of Business, studies consumer behavior, retail strategy and logistics, with an emphasis on last-mile supply chains, or when a product or service is delivered to the customer. He has been quoted in Modern Retail and the Detroit News.
Contact: slim@msu.edu
“This holiday season is shaping up to be unusually complex, with retailers navigating softer discretionary demand, shifting consumer spending toward essentials, tighter delivery windows, and higher operating costs tied to labor and transportation. At the same time, supply chains are more resilient than in prior years, but not without pressure points — capacity constraints in last-mile delivery, volatility in import flows and ongoing adjustments to tariff-affected categories. Insights from recent research on consumer purchasing and return behavior, and food and general-merchandise logistics, highlight how small operational frictions, such as delivery delays and stockout risks, can significantly impact customer loyalty and profitability during peak periods. This perspective allows for evidence-based commentary on where retailers are most exposed, which strategies have proven effective in real-world data, and how consumers can expect service levels, availability and prices to behave as the season unfolds.”
Simone Peinkofer, an associate professor of supply chain management in the Broad College of Business, studies retail management and logistics. She can discuss the impact of tariffs on consumers and retailers. She also can talk about the costs and environmental impacts of online returns; her expertise on this topic has been featured in Fast Company, Fortune, Slate and the Detroit News.
Contact: simonep@broad.msu.edu
“My research highlights how consumers play a key role in supply chain management. With ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and inflation this holiday season, shoppers should expect higher prices when buying gifts for loved ones, while retailers may face lower consumer spending overall.”
cost and environmental impacts of online returns
Ayalla Ruvio is an associate professor of marketing and associate dean for graduate programs in the Broad College of Business. She is an expert on consumer behavior and retail strategy. Her research has been featured in outlets such as CNN, the New York Times, Consumer Reports, Forbes and the Atlantic.
Contact: aruvio@msu.edu
“Based on responses from 524 consumers who participated in a survey I conducted this past week, it seems like this holiday season, shoppers are tuning out the political noise: 62.5% say the current climate won’t affect their gifting plans, and even amid economic chatter, the vast majority (79.1% ) expect it will have little to moderate effect on their spending. Instead, consumers are getting strategic. Over half of them indicated that they plan to start shopping early and are taking their time to find the best offers. Price sensitivity is high, and consumers are prioritizing quality-for-price over big brand names. And while excitement for Black Friday remains, most expect promotions to look about the same as last year, or a bit lighter, signaling a value-first approach to holiday shopping.”
Forrest Morgeson, associate professor and interim chairperson in the Broad College of Business’ Department of Marketing, is an expert on customer satisfaction and customer experience measurement and management. Prior to coming to MSU, he was the director of research at the American Customer Satisfaction Index, or ACSI. He has been quoted in national media outlets including the Associated Press, Yahoo and CX Dive.
Contact: morgeso3@msu.edu
“This year’s holiday shopping season promises to be an interesting one, and perhaps one of the more difficult for consumers since I began analyzing consumer behavior 25 years ago. Prices for goods remain high and continue to rise in some sectors, challenging consumers’ ability to buy. The trade and tariff policies of the Trump administration have added to the mix both additional pressure on prices and general uncertainty for both buyers and sellers. Job cuts, which are at their highest level since 2020, when the COVD-19 pandemic shuttered the economy, add even further stress and uncertainty for consumers. Finally, consumer sentiment recently fell to a near record low, illustrating the deep fear and frustration of consumers. Higher-income earners have so far been able to pick up the slack and propel continued consumer spending growth. However, their ability to do so this holiday shopping season remains an open question.”
Patricia T. Huddleston, professor of retailing in the Department of Advertising and Public Relations within the College of Communication Arts and Sciences is an expert in retail strategy, consumer behavior and branding. She’s also an affiliated faculty member with the MSU Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection, or A-CAPP, which focuses on outreach, education and research designed to help protect brands and products around the world.
Contact: huddles2@msu.edu
“Will this be a ‘bah humbug’ holiday season? While early holiday predictions from the National Retail Federation, or NRF, Deloitte and McKinsey were somewhat optimistic, they were based on surveys conducted before the recent government shutdown. Holiday sales are expected to reach $1 trillion for 2025, with spending predictions varying from a 3.7%–4.2% increase (per NRF) to a 10% decrease (per Deloitte). We expect a value-seeking consumer this year, pulling out all the stops to save money. These strategies include buying second-hand products, making homemade gifts and trading down to lower price points and discount retailers.
“With a focus on price and value, consumers are vulnerable to buying counterfeit products. A global survey from the MSU Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection found that 66% of those surveyed had been deceived into buying counterfeit products. Consumers can protect themselves by choosing trusted retailers when buying online and by being wary of links shared on social media.”
Saleem Alhabash is the associate director of research at MSU’s Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection, where he leads consumer research projects related to trademark counterfeiting and manages the center’s research portfolio. He is also a professor of advertising and public relations in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences. His expertise has been featured in CBS News, USA Today, Barron’s and the Detroit Free Press, and he spoke about the importance of anti-counterfeiting research during a 2025 press conference with Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel.
Contact: sa@msu.edu
“In the midst of the rush to get holiday shopping completed this holiday season, consumers are at an elevated risk for buying counterfeits. Consumers are encouraged to stop and think before buying products online, examine who the seller is, and always remember that if the price is too good to be true, then the probably has a high likelihood of being counterfeit.
“The sheer volume and velocity of counterfeit products in the marketplace make it incredibly hard for consumers to distinguish between genuine and fake goods, elevating the risk of buying and using counterfeit products that threaten consumers not only financially, but also their health and well-being. A 2023 consumer survey from the MSU Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection indicated that more than half of consumers across 17 countries have intentionally bought counterfeit products and two-thirds of them were deceived into buying counterfeits.
“This particular holiday season presents an additional set of potential elevated risks, primarily due to the impact of the U.S. tariffs on foreign imports, which could potentially usher in even more opportunities for the prevalence of counterfeits in the supply chain due to the increase in prices of genuine goods. The supply chain is getting more complicated, and it’s becoming easier for fake products to slip in because companies are relying more on nonstandard shipping methods, like small packages, incorrect labels and informal trade routes.”
Learn more about key findings from A-CAPP’s 2023 global consumer survey.
Kari Kammel is the director of the Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection at MSU. She is an expert on legal issues pertaining to trademark counterfeiting, U.S. state and federal law, e-commerce and social media liability for trademark counterfeiting, as well as public international and intellectual property legal issues. Kammel has testified before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee and Senate Judiciary Committee based on her research and has been quoted in national outlets including Reuters, USA Today and NPR.
Contact: kkammel@msu.edu
“This holiday shopping season, consumers should be extra cautious about where they buy their gifts, as many factors are complicating the safety and security of online marketplaces. While brands are doing what they can to guide shoppers toward authentic products, counterfeits and cheap, potentially unsafe goods are flooding the market more than ever. In past years, buying from an unsafe website run by bad actors might have only resulted in receiving a counterfeit item, but now that trend often overlaps with other types of fraud, such as identity theft and credit card theft.
“Tariffs are also making it harder to protect consumers and legitimate brands, as they encourage unauthorized resellers and counterfeiters to flood high-tariff countries with cheaper goods. Any marketplace that allows third-party sellers (those who are not the brand itself and may be unauthorized) increases the risk that consumers will unknowingly buy counterfeit products. It also becomes harder to track down these third-party sellers if a product turns out to be fake or if a consumer is injured, making follow-up on complaints difficult. A law passed two years ago — the INFORM Consumers Act — allows state attorneys general to take action against online marketplaces that fail to vet certain high-volume third-party sellers. While no state has used this law yet, the Federal Trade Commission recently took its first action under it against Temu.”
Ed Timke, assistant professor of advertising and public relations in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences, is a public cultural historian of advertising and its place in society and culture. His research focuses on preserving and sharing advertising histories in the U.S. and other countries, with special emphasis on making advertising accessible and inclusive for individuals with disabilities.
Contact: timkeedw@msu.edu
“The holiday shopping season is a revealing moment for how brands represent who belongs in our celebrations. My research on disability inclusion in advertising, as well as my writing for ABILITY Magazine, shows that when people with disabilities are authentically represented in campaigns, it challenges stereotypes and expands how we understand joy, generosity and togetherness. Too often, ads still frame disability as something to overcome rather than as part of everyday life. Inclusive advertising during the holidays can also highlight the growing market for universally designed and adaptable products, such as accessible game controllers or adaptive fashion. These innovations remind consumers and companies alike that accessibility, creativity and belonging are at the heart of the holiday spirit.”
Juan Mundel, associate professor of advertising and public relations in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences, studies how advertising and media affect consumer behaviors. He focuses on reactions to and influences of marketing and social media advertising, particularly for underserved or at-risk populations. Mundel was recently quoted in a Detroit News article about the holiday shopping season.
Contact: mundelju@msu.edu
“As a scholar of new media, advertising and retail, I look at how technology continues to transform the shopping experience for consumers. Sixty percent of consumers say they will use social media for holiday inspiration, underscoring the growing influence of in-app shopping and social commerce. Moreover, one-third of consumers plan to leverage AI tools to find better deals, signaling a new phase of tech-driven purchasing behavior.”
Read Timke and Mundel’s Q&A on making ads inclusive for blind and low-vision audiences.