What to expect at the grocery store this holiday season

David L. Ortega, food economist and Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy at Michigan State University, shares what to expect at the grocery store this holiday season. With prices for key proteins on the rise, he breaks down current trends, highlights value offers from retailers and offers practical tips for keeping your holiday meal affordable.

How are grocery prices looking this year?

After a period of cooling inflation, food price increases have begun to accelerate again in recent months. Today, grocery or “food-at-home” prices are 2.7% higher than a year ago and remain more than 25% higher than five years ago. This recent uptick in food inflation reflects a mix of factors, including labor and supply constraints in certain industries and higher prices for imports due to tariffs.

Despite inflationary pressures, grocery retailers are stepping up with significant discounts and promotional offers heading into the holiday season to help ease the burden on consumers.

What’s happening with holiday staples?

Turkey
After a dip in prices last year, wholesale turkey costs are soaring again. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects the average wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys at $1.32 per pound in 2025, a 40% jump from last year’s average of 93.7 cents.

The increase reflects tighter supplies following renewed outbreaks of avian influenza, also commonly known as bird flu, which has affected millions of birds nationwide. Compounding the challenge is avian metapneumovirus, a respiratory disease that reduces the number of viable eggs from breeders, slowing efforts to rebuild flocks.

Despite these pressures, shoppers should still find plenty of turkeys available. Retailers often price them as “loss leaders,” selling them at or below cost to draw customers into stores, so consumers may not see the full cost increase at checkout.

Beef roast
If your holiday centerpiece is a beef roast, be prepared for sticker shock. Prices have reached record highs, up more than 18% from last year. This increase is driven by reduced cattle supplies after years of drought and continued strong demand. For families serving prime rib or other beef cuts, this will likely be the most expensive item on the menu.

Sides and produce
Fresh vegetables such as potatoes, yams and squash have seen only moderate price increases compared to last year. Shoppers looking to avoid tariff-related cost hikes should opt for fresh produce rather than canned goods. Canned vegetable prices are up nearly 5%, reflecting higher steel and aluminum costs that have raised packaging expenses.

Pies and desserts
The good news is that pie prices are holding steady, up just 0.4% from last year. The bad news is that chocolate is expensive. Global cocoa shortages from poor harvests in major producing countries have kept chocolate prices near record highs, making that chocolate pie or dessert bar a pricier indulgence.

Wine and drinks
A bright spot on the holiday table comes from wine. Prices are down about 1.2% from last year, although imported varieties will likely cost more due to tariffs. Coffee lovers, however, will pay extra, as coffee prices are roughly 18% higher than last year due to tight global supplies from climate-related impacts in coffee-producing regions and tariffs.

What deals can consumers expect?

Retailers are competing for budget-conscious shoppers in 2025. Major chains are rolling out promotions to keep holiday meals affordable.

• Walmart is offering its 2025 Thanksgiving basket serving 10 people for under $4 per person, the lowest price since the program began.
• Aldi continues its value focus with a $40 holiday basket meal that feeds 10.

Beyond these headline deals, shoppers can expect promotions, price matching, digital coupons and loyalty app savings on staples and seasonal items across major grocery chains.

Tips for saving money on your holiday meal

Even with higher food prices, there are still plenty of ways to stretch your holiday meal budget. Careful planning, smart substitutions and taking advantage of store promotions can go a long way toward keeping grocery costs in check.

Here are some effective strategies:

• Consider store brands. Private-label products can cost significantly less.
• Plan ahead. Create a shopping list and stick to it to avoid impulse purchases.
• Shop early. Buy shelf-stable and freezer items ahead of time to catch early sales.
• Use digital tools. Store loyalty apps and coupons offer personalized discounts.
• Go potluck. Sharing dishes among family and friends is an effective way to stretch your budget and it adds variety to your holiday meal.