While the upcoming movie “Twisters” is fictional, communicating tornado watches and warnings is real and can have life or death consequences. Today, weather information is available on demand from your phone but, often, some people ignore this information. “Twisters,” opening in theaters July 19, uses entertainment as a vehicle for science communication and provides an opportunity to raise the public’s awareness about severe weather messaging.
Bob Drost, an assistant professor in the Michigan State University College of Natural Science, studies the role of science communication and forecasting hazard information like tornado warnings.
John Besley, Ellis N. Brandt Professor of Public Relations in the MSU College of Communication Arts and Sciences, studies public opinion about science to help science communicators be more effective.
Here, Drost and Besley answer questions about severe weather alerts and how to make them more effective.
Based on your research, what is the most important information to include in a tornado watch or warning?
Drost: Actually, different people look for different information. This can include radar imagery, the warning scroll located at the bottom of the TV screen, live coverage and meteorologist information to name a few. In a tornado warning, information should include the tornado location, speed and direction along with the projected path. In addition, it is important to impart the importance to the population the need for taking prudent action such as seeking shelter/cover in a safe place immediately. A severe weather/tornado watch means that the ingredients are present to form a severe storm/tornado while a warning indicates the presence of severe weather/tornadoes and suggests that the population be prepared and monitor weather conditions.
What can we learn about science communication from disaster movies?
Besley: It’s not so much that it’s about teaching people about tornadoes or storms. Films like ‘Twister’ create context for broader discussions about the real science underneath the fiction.
In this case, ‘Twister’ can remind us that climate change isn’t just about heat. More disasters, such as tornadoes, can arise due to the weather conditions climate change causes. People who watch these movies may form beliefs about the issues the scientists in the film are investigating. And that’s an important role for entertainment to play in society.
Disaster movies usually have scientists playing the role of a hero, which can often portray science in a good light. It’s also useful for movies to put a focus on issues like climate change.
Why do people ignore tornado warnings?
Drost: Many potential reasons exist that help explain why tornado warnings are ignored. The ‘cry wolf’ theory suggests that the more warnings someone encounters where the potential threat never comes to pass, the more likely they are to ignore the warning.
This is dangerous because if a tornado does occur then the individual may not be prepared for the danger that presents. Some people also rely on their own sense of weather knowledge and conclude the threat may not be real. This may take into account past life experiences or memories related to severe events. Also, some individuals may just not take the warnings seriously and believe ‘it won’t happen to me.’
What do you think needs to be done to ensure warnings are received seriously?
Drost: Effective measures might include more accurate warning scenarios. The National Weather Service once used county-based warnings that often overwarned populations based on the geography of the warning. Polygon-based warnings used today more effectively target the likely geographical location that may be impacted. These warnings reduce instances related to ‘cry wolf’ experiences and often support lead times necessary to prepare for a tornado. The wording used in warnings also has become more impactful through the use of language that communicates the severity and likelihood of injury or death.
Besley: Specificity. It’s not just about warning people. As much as possible, you want to make sure that people know the message is meant for them and that they know what’s expected of them.
How can science communicators, emergency managers and meteorologists improve how they communicate tornado watch/warning information?
Drost: Technology has helped a lot in this sense. In addition to warning sirens and localized warning scrolls at the bottom of TV screens, we now have the ability to warn individuals on cell phones and social media — this enhances the reach of the warnings. Being knowledgeable about how the differences in the population are likely to look for warning information and their ability to receive these communications is also critical.
Besley: People are doing the best they can. They're trying to figure out what makes sense for them in a given context. Scientists can do a better job making sure that we’re not just telling people about the risks that people are going to face, but also the benefits of taking action.
There’s a misconception in science communication that the purpose of risk communication is to communicate risk information. The purpose is actually to help people make decisions that make sense for them. Sometimes, it’s indicating the benefit of taking action or helping people recognize that they have the ability to take action. It’s not just about scaring people.
The movie crews for ‘Twister’ and ‘Twisters’ consulted with scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory to help improve the scientific accuracy of the film. Is there anything you would have told the movie’s screenwriters to include in the script about communicating tornado watches/warnings?
Drost: Look to how individuals make decisions during severe weather threats and what information/experiences they consider before taking action. Also, remember the varying social and economic factors affecting populations and how they relate to the way information is communicated/received and the ability of those being warned to seek shelter.
Besley: Don’t portray people as dumb just because they’re making poor decisions and don’t show scientists as tweed-coated know-it alls who are out of touch with the real challenges people face.
Are you planning to see the movie?
Drost: Yes, I am! I really enjoyed the original movie, ‘Twister,’ and the similarities it had to actual NOAA research and technology. It was also unique in that it seemed to impart an almost human-like quality on the tornado (in an evil sense) that made it captivating to watch.
Besley: I haven’t been to a theater in a few years. I’m definitely planning to watch it because it's always interesting to see how movies deal with science and risk. I’ll probably wait to watch it once it’s on a streaming platform.
Is there anything about tornado watch/warning communications that makes you cringe when you see/hear it?
Drost: What worries me most is when information that is not necessarily consistent/aligned with NOAA or National Weather Service communication policies is used in severe situations. Some weather entities have attempted to add additional layers of warning/watch information in their forecasts that could be potentially confusing to the public. Also, any type of hype or information that could potentially overwarn or panic the public is detrimental.