Michigan’s economic outlook brightened as the state elected new leaders and celebrated the conclusion of one decade and the approach of another, Michigan State University’s year-ending State of the State Survey reveals.
Despite the renewing confidence, those who answered the telephone survey continued to express their disappointment in Michigan’s outgoing governor and President Barack Obama.
“This survey shows a huge improvement over two years ago,” said Charles Ballard, survey director and MSU professor of economics. “Yet it’s clear that the economy still has a very long way to go. These results are not nearly as good as we would like to see.”
Some 24.7 percent of Michigan adults said their financial situation has improved in the last year. That’s the fifth consecutive increase since the all-time low of 12.7 percent in the spring of 2009.
On the other hand, 43.1 percent said they are worse off financially than one year ago. The fraction of the respondents who said they were worse off has fallen in five of the last six surveys, from an all-time high of 67.1 percent in the winter of 2009.
The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
The quarterly survey of 1,000 Michigan adults came during a key time of the year, between Oct. 25 and Dec. 30. Michigan elected a new governor, Republican Rick Snyder, in November.
In December, the state’s unemployment rate also fell to 11.7 percent; down from 14.5 percent in December 2009. Michigan has had the highest unemployment rate in the country for several years, until Nevada’s rate climbed higher in May 2010. The most recent data indicate that California, Florida, and Nevada all have a higher unemployment rate than Michigan.
In addition to a sense of progress in the last year, Michigan residents are also expecting further improvement in the next year, Ballard said. In the recently completed survey, 57.1 percent said they believe they will be better off a year from now. That’s the highest reading since 2004. Only 26 percent believe they will be worse off in a year, the lowest level since 2005.
Despite increasing optimism about the economy, President Barack Obama scored the lowest job-approval marks of his tenure. Only 32.7 percent of Michigan residents rated Obama’s performance as “good” or “excellent.”
Ballard said it’s not unusual for an official’s support to fade, especially if that leader, like Obama, “was greeted with tremendous enthusiasm.” In the first MSU survey after he came to office in January 2009, Obama was given a favorable rating by 70.7 percent of Michigan’s people.
In the final survey during her eight years in office, Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s positive ratings also fell to 18 percent, their lowest point. Granholm, like Obama, was greeted by strong support when she first came to office, with a 58 percent job-approval rating during the first survey of her administration. As Michigan’s economy declined, her ratings fell into the 40s in 2004, the 30s in 2005, and the 20s in 2007.
Ballard noted that “the people of Michigan tend to be pretty harsh toward lame ducks.” Michigan Gov. John Engler’s approval ratings fell substantially at the end of his term as governor in 2002. His positives fell to their all-time low of 33.7 percent in the last survey of his term in the fall of that year.
President George W. Bush also saw his lowest ratings in the final survey of his term, with only 13.7 percent reporting a favorable view of his performance. President Bill Clinton is the only high official in the history of the State of the State Survey whose ratings did not fall at the end of his term. In fact, Clinton’s final favorable ratings were well above 50 percent, which is 20 percentage points higher than they had been five years earlier.
The State of the State Survey, a quarterly assessment conducted by MSU’s Institute of Public Policy and Social Research since 1994, is the only scientific survey that monitors the public mood on important issues facing Michigan and the state’s major regions.
IPPSR specializes in public policy dialogue and education, leadership training and rigorous survey research.
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